5G connections will attain well in excess of 1 billion next year, regardless of the threat of component shortfalls hitting the supply chain this Christmas, going by new analyst predictions.

Connections will increase three fold in 2021 to 637 million, prior to more than doubling in 2022 to 1.34 billion, CCS Insight forecasts, its information demonstrating that China will continue to pave the way – with regards to volume at least, for the upcoming few years.

The data comes in the wake of the publication of nine-month numbers from two of China’s three mobile operators. Those figures provide credence to the analyst firm’s perspectives on the high proportion of the planet’s 5G connections that will have their origin in China over the upcoming years. Although, with regards to market penetration, China is not the leader, regardless of being an “early trailblazer for 5G.” it notes.

South Korea is leading the pack, with 5G set to account for 3/10ths of mobile connections by the conclusion of this year. CCS Insight forecasts that the US will jump ahead of the Chinese based on robust smartphone sales figures in the run-up to Christmas, providing it 25% 5G penetration to China’s 24%, the latter impacted by shaky demand for smartphones this year.

It’s fascinating that CCS holds the belief that holiday season demand will assist in propelling the USA ahead of China, provided that it also sounds a note of caution with regards to device shortfalls at the back end of this year.

The risk of supply issues for high-end devices, which includes the iPhone, stays during the Christmas quarter, the organization specifies. The knock-on impact is that there could be one – regardless a temporary one – with regards to 5G adoption.

But, the analyst firm is sticking with its longer-term predictions for 5G, observing that the quickness at which persons adopt 5G will obviously be dependent on their willingness to purchase 5G capable devices.

Things are looking positive in that regard, the international mobile phone market is predicted to recover in 2022, and rates of 5G handsets are experiencing ongoing reduction, stated Marina Koytcheva, Vice President of forecasting at CCS Insight. “Our prediction for 3.6 billion 5G connections globally by the next four years remains solid”, she stated.

Western Europe will not be a big driver of that expansion.

Currently it still lags other markets, “restricted by delayed spectrum auctions in a few countries, plodding governmental decision-making with regards to the role of Huawei, and reduced demand for smartphones amidst the pandemic,” CCS Insight observes. The pace of 5G rollout is enhancing, but the slow beginning, comparatively speaking, implies that 5G will not account for more than half of cellular device connections in the area until 2024, it forecasts.

Nonetheless, CCS Insight’s figures depict a really rosy picture of 5G development over the upcoming years, specifically considering it is being rolled out against a challenging backdrop, specifically the COVID-19 pandemic, the wider macroeconomic climate, and concerns with regards to Huawei and other Chinese vendors in some dominant international markets.